NBN predicts a million premises next year

NBN users are data-hungry beasts, and while the move from early-adopter to mainstream is expanding the number of users on lower-speed plans, around two-thirds of the 210,000 connected customers are on speeds above 25 Mbps.

Announcing its annual results today, NBN Co's presentation slides show that nearly 20 per cent of its customers are on 50 Mbps and 100 Mbps packages (the 50 Mbps version being the least-loved – customers seem to be skipping directly to the top speed). NBN customers, the outfit claims, use between 62 and 75 GB per month, which is well ahead of consumption on any of Australia's other broadband networks.

The company pinky-promised to accelerate its troubled rollout between 2014 and 2015, which would bring the connected customers to nearly half a million*.

In fact, NBN Co's most recent data shows it getting within striking distance of a target set in its now-obsolete and politically-discredited 2012 corporate plan. Its forecast today that it wants to have around a million serviceable premises by 2015 leaves it midway between the old 2014 and 2015 forecast targets.

NBN Co also makes the sunny claim that its fibre-to-the-basement services are getting 100 Mbps down / 45 Mbps up on the 50 services activated since March 2014, while its fibre-to-the-node trials are running at above 90 Mbps down and 28 Mbps up. The commercial launch for the service is still slated for 2015, with 1,000 nodes to be handed over from Telstra by June 2015.

Since there were only enough customers to deliver $AU60 million in revenue in 2013-14 (half of that from fibre products), only a cynic would point out that the company's losses blew out from $AU732 million in 2012-2013 to $AU1.04 billion in 2013-2014. After all, its asset base also grew in that time on the basis of rising capex.

The network claims a $AU37 average revenue per user (ARPU).

NBN opponents who pointed to low take-up rates in the early stages of the network will be somewhat confounded, with the first 15 FSAMs (fibre service access modules) getting 68 per cent take-up.

The crucial deal with Telstra to get access to its copper without NBN Co having to ramp up its payments to the carrier is promised within “months”, according to CEO Bill Morrow. ®